The news we are getting these last days from Libya are disturbing.
What at first seemed a revolt like those experienced in Tunisia and Egypt, which were to overthrow the tyrant within days of the day, is being extended much more desirable.
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| Seif Islam Gaddafi's son, is acting as spokesperson Regime (Source: noticiaaldia ) |
Gaddafi , your family and your environment seem much more resistant than at first it was presumed. On Tuesday launched a military counter-offensive on the Eastern areas of the country (rich in oil, by the way) and could have regained control of a city in the area.
The Power Street is limited in time. If you get your goals in a few days, the next thing should happen is that there is political opposition to the previous regime to take the reins and begin to build a new order, with a definite plan to hold general elections in within a few months. But the House of Cards does not appear to be crumbling as fast as one would expect.
Street has the capacity to destroy, but when building must give way to those who are more adept at this issue, politicians.
The problem is that if the revolt continues much longer, and refuses to disappear, or migrate (read flee ), the situation becomes quite different. Because it begins a power struggle, which requires that the street let their strength in the hands of military or paramilitary groups, which are the only ones who can conduct a war situation to the goal of eliminating the country's previous rulers.
In recent days we heard that, but in the UK, it appears that funds have been frozen environment Gaddafi (Libya allegedly illegally exported) worth 30,000 million euros. And there must be safe elsewhere. I read this morning that in the Costa del Sol has stalled any real estate venture of Gaddafi.
And we have seen and heard on television to one of their children by ensuring they do not intend to leave the country and will defend position tooth and nail. Well, with all the weapons that the West have been sold in recent years.
This rockfill in their positions suggests a conflict of much longer duration, a virtual civil war. Libya appears to be currently under control of insurgents. But, in turn, these are as impossible a successful assault to Tripoli, where Gaddafi and his loyalists are in control.
If other countries or international organizations, not actively involved in the conflict, this quickly degenerates into civil war, lasting indeterminate, uncertain end and will cause much suffering and many deaths and injuries. Left to their whims, is more than likely that Gaddafi, whose raw military power is surely much higher than the insurgents, end gradually recovering over the country. Especially if you have no qualms, as it seems not to have, to use military force in all this, including bombardments of cities, villages and civilians.
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| The insurgents seem to have control in some cities in Eastern Libya, Tobruk (Source: istmocentroamericano ) |
The only alternative to war as bleak scenario is the rapid intervention of international forces that operate seamlessly to overthrow Gaddafi and his entire power in Tripoli, and that fall side of the insurgents, in the construction of a new system for Libya.
Sure, it seems, are U.S. Marines and UK forces near the Libyan coast, prepared to intervene. But the success of such an operation should proceed in an action supported and sponsored UN, with a clear, defined and shared.
not forget that Gaddafi has been in power since 1969, when a military coup against the then King Ydris he clinched the top leadership of the country. Being an eccentric ruler, disproportionate and puppet, has been received and often praised by all Western governments. Why suddenly becomes reviled by all who laughed thank worthy of analysis. Libya is an important country in the oil market, and that could explain a lot.
75 years ago, a situation we live in Spain similar. A survey (from the Army, at that time), which sought to overthrow the regime of the Second Republic in a few days, and establish a new regime in Spain. But that did not happen, but it sparked a very bloody Civil War, which claimed thousands of lives and ruined many more, and lasted more than three years . Its consequences even today are not totally forgotten. That is a very undesirable scenario.
In 1936, the Western powers were neutral (non-intervention in domestic disputes). Yes there were volunteers who, through International Brigades, put their (limited) forces at the disposal of which was the legitimate government at that time. For its part, the Axis powers (especially Germany and Italy) were indeed much more belligerent in favor of the military rebels, who ended up winning the war. If not that, in a Civil War, actually all end up losing.
not want to think that what we're seeing these days in Libya even lead to a scenario of civil war with its trenches, their battles and skirmishes, and that every inch of territory has to be contested militarily. This would certainly be a catastrophic scenario.
What I fear is happening is that the West is afraid, very afraid. Gaddafi and his sons have been commissioned to shake the specter of Al Qaeda as the instigator of the revolt, which positions them as defenders of the Maghreb with the advance of Islamist forces and terrorists, whose cruelty and we have had to suffer in many countries (U.S. on 11-S, United Kingdom on 7-J, Spain, 11-M ,...).
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| oil well in Libya. Ah, mighty Don Caballero is Money (Source: guiaviaje ) |
West is torn between the devil they know better and the clear position of supporting the Libyan people to get rid of a ruler unpresentable. The problem is that in a Civil War scenario, the boundary between good and evil are blurred, and premium assessment of winners and losers. And this can lead to a part of the Libyan people themselves to take sides with Gaddafi, if it considers that you may end up winning, and anticipates potential benefits arising from that fact themselves.
In short, the best thing to happen in Libya is that the conflict will end soon. As I think Gaddafi cycle is exhausted, I would suggest to international organizations which seek unambiguous intervention to overthrow the tyrant. Libya is a country of about six million inhabitants. Today, it is possible that only fifty or a hundred thousand are clearly for Qadhafi (his most loyal army, his bodyguard, his mercenaries Saharan ,...). But if the situation evolves into a real civil war, that number will not stop growing, and it will become increasingly difficult to reach the end not too gory.
There are lessons that the West should have learned from some wars of the past fifty years. Iraq and Afghanistan are good examples of that. Trying to impose a new regime sponsored by foreign forces has never any stable condition. The stability comes only when all citizens feel their new system as their own. For this, the international force be deployed to overthrow a tyrant, but are citizens of the country who must decide what they want to be Libya in the future. Foreign forces can support and help in this effort, but can not replace them .
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| flows threatened by the war in Libya (Source: dinero.nom ) |
Therefore, I believe that the decisions to be taken to be taken as soon as troops are deployed under UN mandate expel Gaddafi of Libya and the Libyan people decide how you want to organize freed from now and you can build your new regime.
The problem is that the power of the street is almost endless for the destruction (the target is defined and shared), but their ability to build is extremely limited. Other internal actors must appear to take Later that role. And the ones that have those capabilities are the politicians, the political opposition to Gaddafi, whoever they are.
The risk, of course, is to build a new regime that is anti-Western, sponsored by Al Qaeda or others with similar goals, whose achievement is below the reconquest of the West and the expulsion of the infidel .
But the alternative is to see a country so close to bleed in a Civil War that could be long and very cruel.
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