When an event seems absurd, or where we believe that a person behaves absurdly, usually the problem we have is that we lack information, not have all the data. In reality, life in the world, very rarely produce absurdities. May seem to those who do not have all the information. In the scientific world is that the (ex-) planet Pluto was discovered on the basis of study absurd orbit of Neptune, who had no other possible explanation that the existence of a ninth planet in the Solar System.
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| Muammar al-Gaddafi, Leader of the Revolution in Libya (Source: anorak ) |
We are witnessing these days a series of events in some Arab countries that seem to me absurd. We fall into the regime of Ben Ali in Tunisia and that of Mubarak in Egypt. We are seeing the (apparent) death throes of the Gaddafi regime in Libya. And we seeing unrest in Bahrain and Yemen. And what will happen in the coming days or weeks. When I say that I find absurd is that, after decades of dictatorships of various ilk, why now?. Events lead me to think that there will be some decision (active or passive) of the leading global powers in the sense of dropping them . Kissinger's theory of 70 ( is a child of p. .., but he's our son of a b. .. ) seems no longer valid today for international diplomacy.
difficult to understand that a regime for 30 years petrified in power like Mubarak suddenly crumble before the stake of a simple street riots. Well, do not underestimate the power of the street , of \u200b\u200bcourse. Helped by the fact that the Army, the mainstay of the Mubarak regime, decided to give back and reach the people. Should understand why this change of orientation, which may respond to the need to drop a President amortized to be able to maintain the power and influence in the new situation.
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| Gaddafi, one of his trips, escorted by their guards of female corps (Source: easycomeseasygoes ) |
Now we're seeing (almost intuitively, because the facts are developed back to the world public opinion) riots in Libya, it seems that savagely repressed by the Gaddafi regime, including aerial bombardments of civilians.
And we're hearing about riots in the Kingdom of Baréin (a small archipelago off the coast of the Arabian Peninsula in the Gulf, 678 miles square-, and about one million inhabitants). As in Yemen, southwest of the Arabian Peninsula, a vast country of more than half a million square kilometers (like Spain) and 20 million people.
In all these countries have been perpetuating autocratic regimes of various kinds and depth. Libya and most countries of the Arabian Peninsula have an economy based on oil, which gives statistically a per capita income figures pretty rigged, but the distribution of wealth is not, in general, let alone equitable. The exception is Bahrain, which is certainly an autocratic kingdom, but small and sparsely populated, where, apparently, the income of a rich country is fairly distributed among the population. On the contrary, Yemen is a country without oil, with a per capita income below $ 1,000 a year.
The Arabian Peninsula we have much further away, and the realities we are much more beyond that developed in the Maghreb, the doors of the house. Making a quick review, let's say the kingdom of Saudi Arabia occupies most of the Arabian Peninsula (2,149,690 km2 and a population 28M). Kuwait (17 820 km2, 2.3 million inhabitants) is a small kingdom that serves as buffer state between Saudi Arabia and Iraq. In fact, the Kuwait invasion by Saddam Hussein's Iraq was the beginning of the first Gulf War. In the Persian Gulf coast, advancing southwards, we find Baréin (an archipelago of thirty-odd islands, some of which are claimed by Iran), the emirate of Qatar (a 11.437Km2 peninsula, with 1.4 million inhabitants ) and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). UAE is a federation of seven emirates, with a total area of \u200b\u200b77.700Km2 and a total population of 4.3 M inhabitants. By far the largest emirate is Abu Dhabi (67.340Km2 and 1.4 million inhabitants) and is followed by Dubai (3.885Km2 and 1.4 million inhabitants).
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| Demonstrations in Libya (Source: intereconomia.com ) |
At the southern tip of the Arabian Peninsula there are two states: the East is the Sultanate of Oman (212.457Km2 and 3M population) and the southwest is Yemen (527.968Km2 and 21M people). Until 1990, when unification occurred, there was the Arab Republic Yemen (North) and the Democratic Republic of Yemen (South).
the north, Jordan (94.740Km2 and 5.4 M people) is also geographically in the Arabian Peninsula, as part of the territory of Iraq and Syria.
In many of these countries, the existing political regimes are autocratic type, if not clearly dictatorial. With hereditary leadership and little or no involvement of the population in the country's political progress.
The main feature that distinguishes one country from others is the participation (or not) of most of the population in the country's wealth, ie the distribution of income. The UAE and Saudi Arabia itself would be an example of a reasonable distribution of wealth among citizens. With the special feature that these are countries that have received (and hosting) to a high immigrant population (especially from India or Sri Lanka and the Far East.) The rights of immigrant populations are limited but, in general, his salary is reasonable, which stifles the possibility of massive popular uprisings. Yemen would be different if (Desert without oil).
'll see what happens to those we hear of riots in Bahrain, that look more like a picnic in the Plaza of the Pearl of Manama, the capital, and possibly resolved with tweaks to the system without much significance. Yemen, for me, is unknown, although poverty in the country and its people is a trigger for any kind of revolt: too many people without much to lose.
The big concern now is Libya (1.759.540Km2 and about 6M people). Libya was an Italian colony, and its territory was, for World War II, the battles between Afrika Korps of Rommel and Montgomery African forces. After the war, in 1951, Libya gained independence under the government of King Idris, who was deposed in a military coup in 1969. From there, Muammar al-Gaddafi has been the supreme ruler of the country. In 1977 he proclaimed the Libyan (literally, State of the Masses) Arab Jamahiriya (sic). In practice, Gaddafi has been in the past four decades, the Guide of the Revolution, and the highest representative of the country.
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| Stability of supply (And price) oil is the main concern of Western countries (Source: RTVE) |
Gaddafi has been throughout this time an eccentric ruler, fickle and unconscionable. Flirts with the Soviet Union for quite some time was praised by some European left, as popular revolutionary leader. Have always suspected shady dealings with terrorist groups have attacked mainly against U.S. interests, so Reagan decided in 1986, the bombing of Tripoli and Benghazi. In the late eighties, it seems that defrayed the Lockerbie bombing in Scotland, and UTA772 flight, which resulted in sanctions that brought the country to isolation. In 2003 the Libyan government acknowledged the involvement of Libyan nationals in the attacks, and agreed to pay compensation, which led to the end of the period of isolation.
These days, Gaddafi's reaction to the popular revolts, they ask, as in Egypt, a regime change has been extremely violent. For so many years in power, Gaddafi has developed an autocratic leadership, dictatorial and hereditary. While recognizing that Libya is the country with the highest life expectancy of all African countries, and also has the highest nominal GDP per capita (over $ 9,000), although the distribution of that wealth is surely very biased.
Ruling the country as a large farmhouse, it seems that Gaddafi (and the gang that takes advantage of the regime, especially his own family) is not willing to accept that the crowds on the street to dictate policy . Refers to foreign powers that would be dark, he said, instigating or even financing the revolts staged by young drugged, and has already deployed a savage repression against manifestations. In a long speech on Tuesday, has made clear his intention to leave no power, and its firm determination to suppress any attempt to destabilize (so far, it seems that there have already been air raids, in some cases). According to some sources, there could be mercenaries with a mission to destroy the rebels .
If the riots are still firm, most likely next Gaddafi and his entourage leave the country, and devote themselves to enjoy the capital, no doubt, must have been illegally exported from the country havens tax or wherever. In a country with a GDP of $ 75.000M, with 95% of its oil exports around the tenth master of the farm have been a few billion dollars every year. A little fortune to retire in peace and tranquility.
just hope we do not have to attend in the coming days as more massacres that have occurred recently in Libya. Several hundred dead and appears to be due to indiscriminate and savage violence that the government has used against the demonstrators.
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| Gaddafi Khaimah in the gardens of Villa Pamphili in a trip to Italy in 2009 (REUTERS; Source: El País ) |
The truth is that in this century as a tyrant Gaddafi should no longer have a place under the sun with their tents scattered throughout the territory (for mislead the enemy), with its bodyguard of female officers, and their bizarre events every time you travel to a foreign country, the chieftain of the Thousand and One Nights days should have the power.
popular revolts move by all territories Arabs, and threatening a house of cards that is much more fragile and unstable than the Western public thought until a few weeks. A Mubarak had never been called a dictator until he left power, and schemes like Gaddafi operetta, nominally by the people and for the people, but clearly without the people, have no place in the world order of this century, although the names are hidden from low popular and socialist .
Call me cynical, but we will continue to accept for some time that is clearly authoritarian Chinese regime and human rights are not their priority, because China is already the second largest economy, and will soon be the first. However, puppets in power in countries modest enough is enough.
Whoever operetta, going to the theater.
JMBA
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